Source: the U.S. Census Bureau

When it came to the U.S. trade deficit with China, however, Trump’s rhetoric changed. He blamed former U.S. presidents for the trade deficit and was much less critical of China or President Xi than in the past. Trump also praised recent commercial deals including the sale of U.S. aircraft. What can explain Trump’s different approach to China generally and President Xi in particular?

It was not a very different approach. He’s been very courteous and has tried to develop a warm, personal relationship with Xi. But, as you probably read today, the White House is writing some trade remedies against China. There is a lot of bipartisan support for taking a tougher stance on China. So, his good-cop approach is to be courteous and warm, personally, but when we have differences with China, he’s going to take them on.

Source: USITC DataWeb

Source: USITC DataWeb

President Trump claimed that President Xi promised to exert more pressure on North Korea after his visit. Is this likely? China values stability of the Korean Peninsula and has pursued diplomatic channels to lessen tension. Likewise, South Korea favors a conciliatory approach. Are China and South Korea expected to be helpful in applying pressure on North Korea?

In general, the U.S., Japan, and South Korea have a lot of common ground and harmony among them. They apply a lot of pressure on North Korea together. There are some differences. Nevertheless, the most important events in South Korea during Trump’s visit were his speech to the National Assembly and his discussions with President Moon Jae-in. Their focus was on the issue of democratic unification as the final solution to the Korean Peninsula. China is on the outside of the U.S.-Japan-South Korea alliance, but we will see how it behaves on the issue of North Korea. It will take time for the sanctions to work and also for China to change its policy. China may apply a lot more pressure in the next year or so because of Washington’s demand for increasing sanctions and the recent terrorist designation of North Korea. With these recent developments, China may have to change its mind in a year or so.

In general, the U.S., Japan, and South Korea have a lot of common ground and harmony among them. They apply a lot of pressure on North Korea together. There are some differences. Nevertheless, the most important events in South Korea during Trump’s visit were his speech to the National Assembly and his discussions with President Moon Jae-in. Their focus was on the issue of democratic unification as the final solution to the Korean Peninsula. China is on the outside of the U.S.-Japan-South Korea alliance, but we will see how it behaves on the issue of North Korea. It will take time for the sanctions to work and also for China to change its policy. China may apply a lot more pressure in the next year or so because of Washington’s demand for increasing sanctions and the recent terrorist designation of North Korea. With these recent developments, China may have to change its mind in a year or so.

I don’t know if that’s the right question. Trump prefers bilateral trade agreement. But when it came to political, diplomatic, and military dimensions, he had different approaches. The 2007 Quad security partnership among the United States, Japan, Australia, and India was resurrected after ten years. The U.S., Japan, and India have many shared interests in the Indo-Pacific region. The Indo-Pacific strategy itself is a trilateral arrangement; the Quad is a quadrilateral arrangement; the APEC meeting is a multilateral arrangement; the East Asia Summit (EAS) is a multilateral arrangement. Besides bilateral trade agreements, I don’t see any truth to the notion that bilateral arrangement may impede the achievement of U.S. goals.

Eleven TPP countries reached a trade agreement without the United States, and the agreement is expected to take effect by 2019. Without U.S. participation, how has the revised TPP11 agreement changed? What obstacles remain in finalizing the trade deal?

I imagine it’s a worse agreement than the original because the biggest selling point of the original TPP is the access to the U.S. market, and the U.S. is not in the agreement now. But I’m not really sure about details of the new TPP minus the U.S. It will probably go forward.

Source: World Bank

At the ASEAN-China summit, several countries including the Philippines and Japan toned down their opposition to Chinese military activities in the South China Sea. In your opinion, what contributed to this change in tone?

They are very much opposed to Chinese military activities in the South China Sea. I don’t know what they said, but they are currently forming all kinds of arrangements. The U.S. tries to roll back the Chinese military activity in the South China Sea.