In your 2020 article, you discuss how there was increased interest in building dams in the Mekong Basin in the 1990s. Can you talk a little bit about why this development started, where it is currently, and where you think it is heading? 

There has been an increased effort to build dams since the 1990s, but it hasn't been continuous. It started in the 1990s, and then there was a decline after the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998. It wasn't until the 2010s that we saw a large increase again.

There has been an increase in efforts to build dams in Laos in particular, and there were several dams that have been built on the mainstream Mekong or Lansing River in China. Fewer dams are being built in Thailand. There has been one major dam built in Cambodia, however, there’s a moratorium on other dam buildings on the mainstream Mekong in Cambodia. Hence, it depends on the country, but the most dam building has been in China and Laos. Most of the dams on the Mekong in China have already been built, and it seems to be continuing in Laos, as Thailand is buying the energy. 

The exploitation of the Mekong River Basin’s natural resources, especially through hydropower and sand mining, is causing escalating harm to the region’s ecosystems and endangering the livelihoods of over 70 million people. The effects of development are distributed unevenly, with many of the costs borne by the poor and marginalized. How are the populations along the Mekong affected? 

A lot of people along the Mekong River, and on tributaries of the river, are heavily dependent on wild capture fisheries for their livelihoods and subsistence. When you build dams you block fish migrations and change the ecology of the river, hydrological patterns, and water quality, which has a huge impact on the fish species within the basin. In turn, that has a very negative impact on the ability of local people to catch fish, which is important for their diet and income. Rural people living in smaller villages are especially dependent on this since they don't have a lot of income or replacement sources of protein. Since they may not have much money to buy food from elsewhere, children’s health is particularly impacted. For example, in northeastern Cambodia, many children are stunted or malnourished because of a lack of animal protein. If people don't have sufficient nutrition, they can't develop appropriately, which will affect their whole lives. 

In addition to the people, there is a huge cost to the environment more generally, including impacts on biodiversity, wetlands, and important habitats.

Given decades of protest, how successful have anti-dam activists been in combating the project? How well have they brought these issues to light and do you anticipate that the Chinese government will be at all receptive to them in coming years? 

Success has been uneven and depends on the degree of freedom people have to protest and object. For example, in Thailand, people have more freedom and are more able to protest. This has resulted in less dam development because of the opposition that exists. These protests have been quite successful. 

In other countries, like Laos or China, there's much less political freedom, so there has been less success. In the case of Cambodia, there has also been some success. They have a moratorium on new dams on the mainstream Mekong now. The dams planned for the Mekong between Laos and Thailand have not proceeded largely because of protests. They have had a lot of success in getting their messages out, but political freedoms in the region do limit the potential for success, especially in Laos. Laos has to export the power to Thailand because Laos itself doesn't have the demand. Some of the efforts by the Thai groups could have some success. It’s kind of a mixed bag. For example, in Northern Thailand, Thai activists have had difficulty addressing Chinese dams, because it's a different country and a different political system, which creates difficulties. Activists have much more success with things that are happening in their own country. 

How do you expect Xi Jingping’s hold on leadership along with China’s increasingly adversarial relationships to impact the project given its scale and projected timeline? 

I’m not sure I would characterize President Xi's relationships as an increasingly adversarial relationship in the region. The Chinese have promoted hydropower dams in the region, and they have certainly encouraged Laos to build more projects and invest in the Lower Se San 2 in Northeastern Cambodia, which has been an issue. They have promoted dam construction and built a lot of dams on the Mekong lands and rivers in China. This had negative downstream impacts within the Mekong region, as we’ve discussed. I agree China has not had a positive role in reducing the impacts of these projects, especially since it is promoting more dams.

Climate change has caused temperatures and annual precipitation changes across the region, prolonged droughts in the basin’s south and east, and greater saltwater intrusion in the delta. As seasonal flows shift, will countries be able to combat these serious environmental changes?

The most obvious impacts of climate change are sea level rise within the Mekong Delta, and that's going to be very difficult for Vietnam to address. Climate change may result in changes in temperature and precipitation in other parts of the region, but the exact impacts are not entirely clear, because of El Niño its direct effects. Importantly, the biggest impact on the river has been increased river levels in dry seasons. The dams in China have held back water in the rainy season, releasing it in the dry season, which has dramatically changed the water levels at different times of the year and blocked sediment flow downstream. Climate change is an issue, but the bigger issue is how the Chinese manage their dams, partially sediment flow. That certainly has a big impact on the river right now. 

Do you see China as being able to successfully manage this water given the science behind the challenge? 

China could choose to try to release water in a way that replicates the natural flow cycle that existed before the dams were built. This would result in fewer downstream impacts and it wouldn't be that difficult, but it would cost them in energy production and availability. The Chinese would need to make a political commitment. Right now, there is no indication of that happening, but they could do it if they wanted to, which would reduce the impacts significantly. 

Do other countries have any bargaining power with China to negotiate how water should be released because they are being affected by these negative impacts? 

Chinese leaders have resisted calls from downstream countries to manage their dams differently because they feel that they have national sovereignty in their own waters. They don't want to cede that to downstream countries. For example, they're not a member of the Mekong River Commission. Right now, Laos has a lot of debt owed to China, which limits any ability to meet China’s demands easily. Laos could try to appeal to China to improve conditions downstream, but I’m not sure it would be successful, although it would improve Chinese reputation within the Mekong region if they were to do that sort of thing. There’s not a lot of indication that China is willing, however. 

In addition, the Lao government and downstream countries also do not fully understand the impacts themselves. They want to build their own dams, and in many cases, the Chinese are supporting them with that. The interests of national governments are not always the same as the interests of the local people who are being hurt by these projects. The political will within those governments is sometimes limited and the issues are complex.

There's been a 90% reduction in sediment in the Mekong River, largely due to the Chinese dams. This, apart from sea level rise, is negatively impacting the whole Mekong River. There are a lot of things that could be done to improve that on the Chinese side, but they would have to make significant efforts to do so. Right now, I don't see that happening.

The Mekong region is an arena for global competition between China and the United States, in which both countries are seeking to expand their influence. While Beijing sees the lower Mekong region as its backyard, the U.S. footprint in the region dates to anti-communist struggles beginning in the 1950s. For Washington, contemporary involvement in the basin aims to balance Beijing’s sway. How do you think the dynamic is going to change, given the recent change in the U.S. Trump Administration and escalating tensions between the U.S. and China?  

The Trump Administration is dissolving aid and reducing funding in the region, which is going to be very beneficial to China and have a negative impact on U.S. influence in the region. With all the new tariffs coming out targeting Southeast Asian countries, this is likely to reduce the United States’ influence and regional and international reputation. The Trump Administration is not supporting the US role within the region.

This could result in more dam development. One of the things that the US government had been supporting was efforts to monitor changing water levels. The Simpson Center was involved in this. The U.S. was also supporting various studies and development activities in Vietnam and Cambodia. Most of these activities have either been scaled down or canceled altogether. This will make it easier for people to build dams. 

Are there alternative energy sources besides these dams? 

More efforts could be put into developing solar and wind power. With all the sunshine and heat that exists within Southeast Asia, there is a huge potential for solar energy, and it is an alternative that should be considered more seriously. The cost of solar has gone down significantly and it would reduce the need to develop more hydropower dams. In fact, solar power is now cheaper than hydropower. If you look at the cost of developing these dams, it is often not very commercially viable compared to these other sources. Developing other renewable sources would be better for consumers and the environment.