The early results from last week’s presidential elections project that Probowo Subianto has all but won the presidency, having exceeded a majority in the first round of Indonesia’s presidential elections. Was this result expected?

It's a safe assumption that he has won the presidency, with no need for a runoff. The estimates vary between 55 and 60%. The so-called quick count system that they use in Indonesia, which looks at certain polls the day of the election is pretty reliable. 

Indonesia’s unique geography and size also contributes to the complexity of the Indonesian electoral system.

Right. If you look at the rules for the election of a president, it's not just the number of votes that matter because they have to get a majority in at least 20 provinces. It has to be representative because of the geography. Since Indonesia has a very large population that’s spread over an archipelago the width of the United States, you would think that elections would actually be more difficult, but the Indonesians have been innovating and streamlining their election process for a long time. They were the first Southeast Asian country to get a satellite in the 1960s, because of the need for communications. In the 90s, they found that the Internet was the best way to communicate. So although these electoral results do take a bit of time to release, the electoral system functions well.

With voters under forty constituting more than half of the electorate, several candidates sought to reach young voters through social media. Prabowo in particular used social media to project a new image, taking on the persona of a gemoy or cute grandfather. Is this benign self-reimagining convincing to young Indonesians, especially given his controversial past?

I don't think the cute cuddly grandfather ever really flew; that's really a stretch for Prabowo. I don't think that's what drew under 40 voters to him. I think that his vice presidential candidate Gibran, who is 36 and technically not eligible under the Constitution to run for vice president, but has gotten a pass from the court system, was the real draw. But I think that the question is very well put, because it connects the point that voters were drawn to Gibran, but also highlights Prabowo’s complicated past. It includes not only alleged human rights violations in East Timor, but also allegations from the revolution in 1999, when he was trying to maintain support and power for the Suharto regime, something younger Indonesians are going to be a little more aware of. He was believed to have helped kidnapped and tortured at least a dozen political dissidents, some of whom have never been found.

I have seen these videos, and even though I don’t speak Bahasa Indonesia I could understand people's frustration with his facade in the comments of his videos. 

Prabowo has a very complicated past. Part of that has to do with the fact that his father was a minister for Sukarno. Then he fell afoul of Sukarno and the family had to leave Indonesia for several years. They came back when the Communist Party of Indonesia overthrew Sukarno for one day. And then the military overthrew the communists, putting Suharto into power, whom Prabowo was extremely close with. He had married Suharto's daughter, but they parted. And he made his career with the military. All this to say, you can pick many things from Prabowo’s past, to create an image of him. He is a very seasoned politician, came back from his second exile and founded the Gerindra party, of which he has been leader for over a decade. It just depends on what parts of Prabowo you want to focus on. 

Criticisms of nepotism and corruption have begun to circulate recently due to Prabowo’s running mate, Gibran Rakabuming, the son of current President Joko Widodo (Jokowi). These criticisms are based upon the Constitutional Court’s decision that exempted Gibran from a rule that would have barred him from serving as Vice President due to age. What are the implications of this decision for Indonesia’s relatively fragile democracy?

Nepotism has been there forever; it's almost a rule. The strongest party in the lower house, the PDI-P is led by Megawati Sukarnoputri, Sukarno’s daughter. She has her own daughter training to become president. Joko Widodo got his son placed as Vice President, and has now started his own family dynasty. You could argue that the Subianto family, Prabowo's family, was a bit of a dynasty in itself, even though they had to keep running out of the country. This is very typical of South and Southeast Asia. Political dynasties are almost the rule. Look at Thaksin in Thailand. Political dynasties are in almost every country, which has ironically also allowed more women to be heads of state in these countries than you see in the Western world. They are selected not because they're women, but because they are either the daughters or the wives of former heads of state. 

Given the interconnectivity of Southeast Asia, and specifically Indonesia, on the internet and on social media, how much importance is put on campaigning via social media? Does it play a large role in Indonesia’s elections? Furthermore, does the Internet create unique ways in which elections can be tampered with?

The youth of course are very tied to social media, especially in Indonesia.  But even as a whole, Southeast Asia is such a young, diverse region that social media takes massive importance. There is certainly a great danger with it as well. In the Philippines we saw vote buying go online which made it much easier to conduct and much harder to detect. Overall, the internet makes the good and bad things faster. 

Given his reputation for having an ill temper and being hard to work with, what challenges will Prabowo face in working with the parliament, in particular given that his party is behind in seats in parliament?

There are many ways to answer that. One is that Jokowi was not a complete angel himself. When you put people into power, they are more short tempered than they pretended to be on the campaign trail. Prabowo is a politician; he could not have gotten as far as he has if he wasn’t. Some voters see his military experience as a plus, while others are apprehensive about that past. He will have to put together a coalition because his party has about 13% of the vote from the last estimate. We'll have to wait for the final numbers. The Golkar party will be in his coalition, which was at one time the party of the military and Suharto's party. Those two parties together cannot make a 50% majority, Megawati’s PDI-P has the lead. He's going to have to attract some other parties. 

Do you think the conflict in Palestine will have any weight within Indonesia's elections or in the future? Because neighboring Malaysia has been very pro-Palestine and calling out the West. Considering Indonesia also has this massive Muslim population, with similar protests occurring weekly.

Yes, Indonesia is the world's largest Muslim majority country at over 90%, which means they can be a little bit more relaxed, because sentiment remains pretty similar throughout the population. Malaysia has a bare Muslim majority with about a 25% Chinese population, and the rest Hindu or Christian, which means the Malays see themselves as beleaguered in their majority. At independence, Indonesia decided not to have an official religion. Malaysia on the other hand, decided Islam would be the official religion. It would not be a theocracy, of course, but citizens are categorized by their religion and race. Malaysia also has punched above its weight in the Islamic world while Indonesia has punched below. Malaysia is much more active in the OIC than Indonesia is. Malaysia famously negotiated a way for Egypt to get back into the OIC after it signed the Camp David Accords. Malaysia was the mediator for the Philippines negotiations with the Muslim separatist groups in Mindanao for the autonomy packages. They've got a lot of experience with negotiations.

This is why I’m surprised Anwar came out on such an aggressive stance, especially with the anti-Western slant that he took. He could have been pro-Palestine without deciding to blast the West. There are several reasons for this, one of them being his own domestic politics. The fundamentalist opposition group is gaining in strength, but has never yet won at the national level. In 1999, it won the two northernmost states. And within those northernmost states, they declared that Sharia law would be the law, causing Kuala Lumpur to step in and declare that as unconstitutional. Anwar is trying to get out ahead of that. Also, neither Indonesia nor Malaysia recognizes Israel. At one point Wahid floated the idea of recognizing Israel but it went nowhere. The fear is that you're going to have a protracted war in the Middle East that will once again revitalize extremism.

Part of the answer to your question is to what extent might there be a contagion effect disseminating from this war to Southeast Asia. So far, southeast Asia has tried to keep its hands off the Middle East and its politics. And they really would rather not say anything at all. Indonesia, as you probably know, has a hospital in Gaza with many Indonesian workers that Israel bombed repeatedly. Israel took over and made it a military base. Malaysia has less of a presence in Gaza. Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines all have a domestic component to the conflict. 

Outgoing President Jokowi has successfully managed a balancing act between China and the US, with Indonesia maintaining strong relations between both countries. Do you believe Prabowo is likely to continue a similar balancing act? Or do you expect him to pivot toward one country?

He's going to be forced to continue the balancing act as things currently stand. He is still Minister of Defense until October. That's enabled him to become closer to the United States, where there are no court charges against him, in comparison to current Philippine president Bongbong Marcos. However, he was under a visa ban because of alleged human rights violations. Those were set aside when he became minister of defense, and he even visited the United States. He met with our Secretary of Defense, so he does have ties to the United States. Also, the balance you talk about is very common in some Southeast Asian countries, which rely on the United States and its allies for security, while benefiting economically from China. It's important that those two be in the mix, because the assumption is that Indonesia will never be a treaty ally of the United States. But that strong security partnership with the United States enables you to have a close partnership with China without fear of being overtaken. So I think he will continue that balancing act. There seems to be a perception in Washington that sometimes Joko leans a little bit too much towards China.

But even if Indonesia pushes some towards China, it doesn’t seem like the US will jeopardize that relationship. 

This is right at the heart of Indonesian foreign policy. You continue to see the non-aligned movement in the ministry of foreign affairs, even though that is history. The Bandung Conference was held in Indonesia in the 1950s, where Indonesia was the non-aligned movement leader for Southeast Asia. They still maintain that ideal. Indonesia was very influential for pushing non-alignment within ASEAN.